Thursday, January 17, 2019

Counter to N Ram's wrong inferences from Rafael data.

A brief explanation on the title first. N Ram's article in Hindu today is v.valuable in the Rafael Discourse. It provides lots of useful information. It fails in one important angle though. It draws the wrong inferences/conclusions. In his effort to paint Modi as corrupt, N Ram unwittingly proves just the opposite. Without getting into any further subjective discourse let me go straight to the subject now and address each point.

The points and counter points.

Point 1. The design & development cost per aircraft has gone up by 41% (in 11th page he says it has gone up by 14.2% if escalation clause is considered.

Counter point: Blatant lie/Twisting of facts. The D&D charges are one time (he himself says in the first page in bold 'non-recurring'), and not to be seen as part of the per aircraft price.

The D&D charges in 2007 & 2011 (without escalation as per his graph!) is  11.11 x 126 = 1400 cr. 
The D&D charges in 2016 is 36.11 x 36 = 1300 cr.

Edit at 17:22.
<

There should be no Design and Development charges for the remaining aircrafts to be made in India using the offset clause as that has been spent upfront. (I would like this to be confirmed/corrected by any reader)

I have been reading the rafale literature from various sources, and above contention seems to be wrong. Apart from the 36 Rafales, there is no sign/road map of further Rafales to come in. In which case the D&D is absorbed only by the 36?

I have just posted this question (also will seek answer from other sources)

https://twitter.com/gvenugopalan/status/1086234726132703232

>End of Edit at 17:22.

Edit at 19:17
<
https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/1086183531175469057
answers my previous question.

and I bring back my old paragraph.

There should be no Design and Development charges for the remaining aircrafts to be made in India using the offset clause as that has been spent upfront. (I would like this to be confirmed/corrected by any reader)

Also urge all readers (are there any :) ) to
https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/1086142417055764483

which thread is sufficient to debunk all the nonsense in today's Hindu

In fact you can stop reading the rest of this blog if short on time and read just that one thread
>
Edit at 19:17

So NDA got the D&D cost 100 cr lesser, even compared to the 2007 price!!

I go to the third paragraph and I am stumped. In so many words what he says is that he doesn't know the price of a Rafael aircraft. He accuses Govt of not disclosing it. In an article whose headline screams "

Modi’s decision to buy 36 Rafales shot the price of each jet up by 41%"


Do you know the price? Or you don't know?
Say one thing please.. 


2. Three members of the negotiating team (all from defence ministry) felt cost is higher and were overruled by other 4 members (the chairman who was Deputy chief of Air force and another airforce member -+ 2 defence ministry members)

It is not at all surprising that some members dissented as that's the whole purpose of having a team (also history is full of occasions where such dissensions have happened for both bonafide and malafide reasons). The 2 members from airforce (the chairman of the INT none other than deputy chief of airforce), had put their seal of approval.  The airforce, which suffered for decades with substandard and depleted fleet due to the inaction of the 10 years of UPA, are be the ultimate users of this procurement. They have their skin in the game and they put their airmen's life and mission on line with this purchase. And they concurred with the decision.

3. Leverage - Why wasn't Eurofighter considered when they came up with 20% discount?

By just bringing up this point N.Ram shows the cheap level of ethics and calibre. Wasn't Eurofighter in the fray during the tendering process? Why did they quote a much higher price then, if they can give 20% discount, faster delivery, more advanced systems + + + ..  now? What ethics they have and what credibility for their words?

And where is India's credibility and ethics if we flout the norms set for tendering? At least Modi's Govt won't do that.

Aren't we even ashamed to suggest that we look at Eurofighter option after tendering has taken it's due course?

If the argument is that we should use that for leverage but retain the L1 vendor, then this is the surefire way to kill one's competition after losing a tender. Give an unsolicited, much lower quote with +++ and let the unscrupulous elements pick this up and muddy the water and scuttle the procurement process jeopardising national security. May be that's the plan and who knows who is behind the Eurofighter's unsolicited offer after the tendering process is over.

I wouldn't have been surprised to see this argument in scroll.in or wired.in but in Hindu? by N Ram? I think I still have nostalgia and world view of the Hindu I grew up with. I better grow up and realise that Hindu has more vitriol for Modi Govt than rest of those fake news combined.


4. DAC's role.

There is a huge admission in this role of UPA Govt's criminal negligence in this procurement of national importance. He says

"All this was unsurprising considering that more than a year earlier Prime Minister Modi had spoken his mind, reversing the course followed over the previous decade and announcing, through an Indo-French joint statement in Paris, a decision to buy the 36 Rafale fighter jets in flyaway condition"

How immensely satisfying to read that!!
Of course Modi ji is fulfilling his mandate to clean up the rot, and clean up the cob-webs of non functioning in the Indian systems, and proceeded to deliver what the IAF had been needing for at least past 20 years

You and the middlemen infested defence world would have loved to see the 'course followed over the previous decades' continued, but Indians voted wisely in 2014, just as they will again do in 2019.

Read the next para (N Ram's that is :) ) under DAC's role.

It says "Thirteen India Specific Enhancements to the Rafale fighter jet were demanded by the Indian Air Force as part of its urgent strategic requirement in both the UPA-era bid and the 2016 deal."

So these requirements were STRATEGIC, URGENT and sadly, were NEVER delivered by UPA in it's TEN years of rule. And the form in which it was progressing was to get 18 in fly away, and rest to be done by HAL, which has a history of delivery, which is better left unsaid. (For a taste of it,
https://twitter.com/gvenugopalan/status/1086251935538139136
)


So was UPA even serious about delivering this to IAF? That's the big question and as our RM so clearly and forcefully said in that memorable speech in the floor of the parliament, UPA NEVER intended to deliver ('where is the money?') and they were playing with our national security.


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